Polynomial Smoothing of Time Series With Additive Step Discontinuities

Two-step Smoothing Estimation of the Time-variant Parameter with Application to Temperature Data

‎In this article‎, ‎we develop two nonparametric smoothing estimators for parameter of a time-variant parametric model‎. ‎This parameter can be from any parametric family or from any parametric or semi-parametric regression model‎. ‎Estimation is based on a two-step procedure‎, ‎in which we first get the raw estimate of the parameter at a set of disjoint time...

Exponential smoothing for time series with outliers

Recursive time series methods are very popular due to their numerical simplicity. Their theoretical background is usually based on Kalman filtering in state space models (mostly in dynamic linear systems). However, in time series practice one must face frequently to outlying values (outliers), which require applying special methods of robust statistics. In the paper a simple robustification of ...

A new adaptive exponential smoothing method for non-stationary time series with level shifts

Simple exponential smoothing (SES) methods are the most commonly used methods in forecasting and time series analysis. However, they are generally insensitive to non-stationary structural events such as level shifts, ramp shifts, and spikes or impulses. Similar to that of outliers in stationary time series, these non-stationary events will lead to increased level of errors in the forecasting pr...

A Comparison Between Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network Methods To Forecast GDP of Iran

Smoothing of climate time series revisited

[1] We present an easily implemented method for smoothing climate time series, generalizing upon an approach previously described by Mann (2004). The method adaptively weights the three lowest order time series boundary constraints to optimize the fit with the raw time series. We apply the method to the instrumental global mean temperature series from 1850–2007 and to various surrogate global m...